Prediction of climate change impact on the members of Capoeta damascina species group in Central Zagros, Iran

Distribution models Biodiversity MaxEnt Conservation


August 25, 2023


The aim of the present study was to predict future distribution change of the Mesopotamian barb species group or Capoeta damascina species complex under different climate scenarios in Central Zagros, Iran. By collecting data on the species' presence and applying the Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt) algorithm with the help of R programming language, we were able to create models of the current habitats of the fishes. Then the distribution range shifts in the future were projected in two optimistic and pessimistic scenarios (Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) 2.6 and 8.5) of 2050 and 2080. The results showed that the accuracy of the implemented model was excellent (i.e. AUC (Area Under Curve) was 0.906. Moreover, the range change of species in all scenarios was negative but in the pessimistic scenario (RCP 8.5), the impact seems to be higher than in the optimistic scenario (RCP 2.6). The results of this study are very important for conservation and management. Knowing the potential impacts of climate change on these fish species in Central Zagros in the present and future can help us make better decisions to protect fish diversity in this important region.